How do I make decisions when everything around me is changing? Am I data-driven? Do I rely on gut instinct?
I think most of us are influenced by our early decisions. What worked best for us when we were kids? What pleased our parents? What impressed our teachers? Our early decision-making successes or failures set us up to believe there is one “better” way, at least for us, of making decisions. And then it becomes a self-reinforcing system in which every decision is the right one because we made it in the way that feels “right” to us.
Numerous studies show that 60% of executive decisions turn out to be wrong. My late husband told me that early in my career, because I tended to be paralyzed by decision-making, not relying either on data or gut instinct, or perhaps trying to rely too much on both. The point he was making was, even if I was wrong half the time, I was doing at least as well as everyone else. “Relax, just do something,” was the message. I have learned to do that more often, and it has mostly been successful.
That said, I probably fall more on the “data-driven” side of decision-making. I am the one playing with spreadsheets, asking, “What did that look like the last time we did it,” learning as much as I can before deciding. After all, they call me the Questions Lady. I am supposed to be looking for all the possibilities. Of course, I am data driven.
Or am I?
One of my favorite experiences is that distinct, unforgettable moment in a room when we have spent hours looking at the data, and then seemingly all at once, something changes, and we experience a new, instant clarity. Some people call it an “ah-ha’ moment. I like to think of it as a Holy Spirit moment, that collective intake of holy breath that moves us not just incrementally, but radically forward in our understanding. As if that revelation had stirred in each one of our hearts at the same instant.
Is that gut instinct, or is it data?
Perhaps each of us, whether we see it or not, moves back and forth between data and gut instinct, like a beautiful dance. Each one leads in turn. Each one follows the other in turn.
How many times has a piece of data sparked a new idea for you? How many times has your gut instinct driven you to seek out more data? What does the back-and-forth dance look like for you?
We no longer live in the same world as we did a few years ago. AI seemingly does our thinking for us. Should it make our decisions for us? For me, the answer is, “No.”
But a new world does require a new way of making decisions. It requires us to lean into ways of thinking that might seem rusty, out of practice, or just uncomfortable. Yes, collect the data, then trust your gut. Or go with your gut and verify with data. Just do something.
Here is my current checklist for decisions:
1. What is the simplest next step?
2. What parts of the decision can be undone?
3. What’s the reward for being right?
4. What’s the cost of being wrong?
5. What possibilities am I not considering?
6. Can I experiment with multiple strategies in small ways?
What’s your favorite decision-making process, and how is that changing?